[From left: US President Donald Trump, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Photo credits: Trump - by Gage Skidmore on Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0 (cropped from original); Putin - by Kremlin.ru, via Wikimedia Commons (cropped from original); Zelenskyy - by Volodymyr Zelenskyy - Easter Greetings by the President of Ukraine, CC0)]
Over the past two days, the US President Donald Trump has been telling the media that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could meet him on Friday and sign a deal that would give the US exploitation rights over Ukraine’s critical minerals.
Viewed from one lens, it might seem that the minerals deal is the harbinger of peace between Russia and Ukraine. Any deal where the US has an economic interest should ensure peace, at least theoretically, since Washington would want to protect its interests, more so when it comes to critical minerals. But there are underlying complexities that Trump does not seem to be taking into account and it’s still unclear if Zelenskyy’s visit will actually happen, despite the US’ arm-twisting tactics.
Zelenskyy wants absolute security guarantees from the US, not just implied ones. Fox News earlier quoted Trump as saying that the deal was “pretty much negotiated” and matters like general security for Ukraine would be looked at “later on”. Zelenskyy doesn’t want to look at the security issue “later on”, since that would weaken Ukraine’s negotiation position immeasurably. Without these guarantees, Zelenskyy describes the deal as a “framework”. The US wants a visit only if Zelenskyy is in a “final position” to sign a deal.
Trump has also said “I spoke with Russia about it. They didn't seem to have a problem with it.” However, it’s not quite a fait accompli when viewed from a Russian lens. The underlying contours of this deal are very complex, and define not just the minerals deal but, in effect, define any peace agreement.
A report by the Ukrainian Geological Survey and the country’s Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources indicates that a significant part of the critical mineral resources are located in the regions controlled by Russia—Donbas, Zaporizzia, Luhansk and Kharkiv.
[Hotspot: The Donbas Region in the eastern part of Ukraine is at the heart of the minerals deal with the US. Much of the region is now under Russian control (Map from US Department of Defense)]
The Russian President Vladimir Putin has already said that he is willing to sign a deal with the US over the minerals in these regions. “Regarding new territories, we are ready to attract foreign partners—and in our so-called new historical territories, which have returned to the Russian Federation, there are also certain reserves there. We are ready to work with our foreign partners, including the Americans, there,” he has said. Putin has also thrown in Russian minerals, commodities and aluminium deals for US companies. Pre-Ukraine war Russia accounted for over 5% of global aluminium production.
If any deal Zelenskyy signs does not include the Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, then the message to Europe is that the US takes no account of Ukrainian or European concerns. Such a deal would also buttress Putin’s claims to have ‘won’ the war. It also gives Putin considerable economic negotiation heft, since both the EU and China have been eyeing Ukraine’s resources. It also leaves Russia as a considerable military power. Putin still seeks a weakened Ukraine and regime change in Kyiv. Trump seems to concur, while the EU worries that Ukraine could fall into Russian control all but in name.
Trump and his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have also indicated that the US will not be involved in an active peacekeeping role. The onus thus falls squarely on Europe, and that is not a viable concept for either Ukraine or Europe. It signals a diminished NATO, and that worries Europe. It’s not something that Zelenskyy thinks is reassuring, either. Europe might not have the requisite military muscle without the US. His views are echoed by many in Europe, who don’t trust Putin.
There also appears to be quite a difference between Trump’s pronouncements and the Russian positions. Trump had earlier said that Putin would have “no problem” with peacekeepers but Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the move “deceit” and said that peacekeepers from NATO countries would constitute a “direct threat” to Russia. It’s significant how Lavrov wields his words, implying that even European peacekeeping forces from NATO countries, even without the US, are unacceptable. It signals a continuity in the Russian position that NATO in the Ukraine was its original source of concern, and leaves any long-term peace deal open to Russian interpretation.
Trump is also sidelining Europe not just in the minerals deal, but across the main table in the peace talks. The Europeans worry about Russia as a continuing threat and have begun signaling that they will seek a future beyond the US transatlantic umbrella. The incoming German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has argued “it is five minutes to midnight for Europe” on the issue of defense and said: “After [President] Donald Trump’s remarks last week … it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe.” He has also called for Germany’s “independence” from the US.
Merz’s view is not isolated. The French President Emmanuel Macron has articulated such views previously, as has EU's top diplomat and the former Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, among others. Sweden, Poland and Denmark are among those who have offered arms or financial support for Ukraine. Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said: “… we run the risk that peace in Ukraine is actually [could be - ed.] more dangerous than the war that is going on now."
Putin, in a throwback to the US-Soviet era, and perhaps to the early 19th century Concert of Europe, has said he’s open to cutting military expenditure to 50%, if the US agrees to similar cuts, and “China could then join in if it wants to.” Russia has effectively jettisoned the New START treaty signed with the US in 2010, and also formally withdrawn from the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty in November 2023.
It’s unclear if much beyond a truce will emerge from the confusion; the contours of a durable peace stay undefined. Meanwhile, China’s interests in, and ties with, Russia will persist, and US-China rivalry remains a central geopolitical issue. The global situation will stay dynamic for a long while yet, as indeed the shadow of war over Europe.
Dig Deeper
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Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskyy says no security guarantee agreed with the US and minerals deal ‘depends on Trump’ | The Guardian
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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events – day 1,098 | Al Jazeera
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