Uncertainty Is a Given

Taking control of uncertainty is the fundamental leadership challenge of our time.

Structural uncertainty is global and atomistic. Few industries are exempt from the threat.

Rapid Change Magnifies It

Every uncertainty is magnified by quantum increases in the speed of change, largely brought about by communications and computing technologies.

It Calls for New Skills

Steering a business through uncertainty needs a distinctly different type of leadership, with the following skills:

1. Perceptual acuity
2. Mindset to see opportunity in uncertainty
3. The ability to see a new path forward and commit to it
4. Adeptness in managing the course to the new path
5. Skill in making the organisation steerable and agile.

Read the Signs

A structural uncertainty doesn't arrive overnight, there are adequate signals ahead of time.

Case in Point: Nokia

Nokia - a fantastic brand, highly profitable with huge share - was challenged by a new consumer experience based on a new platform from Apple and Android.

I consulted with the Nokia board and signalled this to them in 2011. They didn't take this structural shift in their planning.

It Calls for Structural Change...

Many companies will need to change the way they are organised, managed and led.

...And Sharp Vision

Perceptual acuity is your human radar to see through the fog of uncertainty so that you can act before others do.

Catalyse Change

Catalysts are doers who take risks partly on facts and partly on their imagination.

Change doesn't wait for a company's annual planning cycle, it is good for people to keep preparing.

How Larry Fink Does It

Blackrock CEO Larry Fink spends 20 minutes every day viewing the news on his iPad and looks to detect any oddity in the news that will impact his business.

The Tools You Need

Two things that will greatly improve your ability to find a path through uncertainty:

1. A sharp focus on end-to-end value chain
2. A working knowledge of digitisation and analytics.

Remember the Basics and Fix the Pain Points

As a mid-level manager or a senior manager, travel as much into the market as possible, visit customers and the field regularly. This will help you fine-tune the system to keep reacting to change. It will also help you fix the pain points.

Act in Time

In a digital world, be brave to make the shift. Vacillating doesn't help. Never confuse patience with a frustrating desire for certainty.

Why Some Resist Change

Many managers are well meaning but become blockers due to their behaviour. They have trouble adapting to a new perspective. Old-timers have problems re-adjusting to change due to:

1. Attachment to old core competencies
2. Inability to build a new core competency
3. Fear
4. Avoiding opposition

Avoid the Blame Game

Blaming and rationalising are the biggest derailers at senior levels, says Dean Stamoulis of Russell Reynolds, a large head hunter. The best leaders do not whine, which shows a level of accountability and confidence in themselves to figure things out.

That's what's needed in ambiguous situations

Act with Courage

Do you have the guts to make the moves? Intellectualising is one thing, anyone can do it. Pulling the trigger is a different thing. You have to harden your inner core to see the world as objectively as possible, think things through carefully and act on what you see.

It's a Continuous Process

You can never completely eliminate uncertainty. You have to keep judging each one carefully.

Make Your Company Responsive

An organisation can be steered and is agile when you link its speed and character to the external environment.

Banish Silos

That means breaking silos and bureaucracy and getting to the point quickly.

Make Teams Work

When Alan Mulally took over as chief executive at Ford, he made teamwork a priority and the basic expected behaviour in the system.

Make Meetings Work

Meetings should be used not to share information but to drive accountability and action steps to achieve goals.

Ford's Mulally reinforced the importance of teamwork through his demand for mutual respect and collaborative problem solving in meetings. He asked everyone to be a team player.

Collaborate, Collaborate, Collaborate

A key to turning around a company is to get a group comfortable with information sharing and joint decision making. If people have the same information, there is less chance of them derailing a decision.

Remove Stonewallers

Many times, in large companies, one individual stalls progress because of his ego. The leader needs to take this person out. If a few simple habits change, every individual will be far better.

Encourage Candour

A good team player with social skills will seek external information, will play coach and umpire in a meeting, and will work through the node to make a decision in a team without the need for 100% consensus.

Someone like this has to have candour. Candour is contagious in companies when the leader is candid.